Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +4 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -0.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -0.6 (+4.6) | 139.9 (-13.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -0.1 (+3.9) | 142.3 (-16.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -0.1 (+3.9) | 142.1 (-16.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.5 (+3.5) | 141.2 (-15.2) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2023 | TNST 69 – 65 APSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | APSU 77 – 61 TNST |
| Feb 12, 2022 | APSU 54 – 52 TNST |
| Jan 30, 2021 | APSU 71 – 56 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2020 | APSU 68 – 59 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#315) | -5.9 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#321) | -1.50 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#321) | -1.79 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.369 (#343) | 0.434 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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