Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | APSU -500 TNST +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +15 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -6.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -6.5 (+8.5) | 135.4 (-8.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -5.9 (+9.1) | 138.3 (-11.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -5.4 (+9.6) | 138.5 (-11.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -6.0 (+9.0) | 138.9 (-11.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2023 | TNST 69 – 65 APSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | APSU 77 – 61 TNST |
| Feb 12, 2022 | APSU 54 – 52 TNST |
| Jan 22, 2022 | TNST 65 – 61 APSU |
| Dec 31, 2020 | APSU 68 – 59 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 4-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-5 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#256) | -10.0 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#240) | -2.90 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#276) | -3.42 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#239) | 0.344 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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