Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -163 TNST +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +16 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -1.9 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -1.4 (+14.6) | 133.6 (+4.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -2.8 (+13.2) | 132.7 (+5.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -2.8 (+13.2) | 133.6 (+4.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -1.5 (+14.5) | 134.1 (+3.9) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2023 | TNST 69 – 65 APSU |
| Feb 12, 2022 | APSU 54 – 52 TNST |
| Jan 22, 2022 | TNST 65 – 61 APSU |
| Jan 30, 2021 | APSU 71 – 56 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2020 | APSU 68 – 59 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-8 | 13-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#289) | -2.3 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#298) | 0.02 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#284) | 0.15 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#209) | 0.441 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.