I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
Gentry Center · December 3, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TNST -5.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Money TNST -225 / APSU +225
Model Predictions
Spread Total TNST win
Actual TNST +4 134 Won
Massey TNST -13.7 (-9.7) — —
Massey Totals — 136.2 (-2.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 88% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 98% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ TNST -9.3 (-5.3) 134.3 (-0.3) 81% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML TNST -10.0 (-6.0) 137.8 (-3.8) 82% ✓
Baseline ML TNST -10.0 (-6.0) 137.4 (-3.4) 83% ✓
Baseline Plus ML TNST -9.7 (-5.7) 136.3 (-2.3) 80% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 3, 2022 APSU 77 – 61 TNST
Feb 12, 2022 APSU 54 – 52 TNST
Jan 22, 2022 TNST 65 – 61 APSU
Jan 30, 2021 APSU 71 – 56 TNST
Dec 31, 2020 APSU 68 – 59 TNST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TNST APSU
Overall 18-15 19-16
Conference 10-8 10-6
Home 11-3 14-3
Away 5-10 4-12
Neutral 2-2 1-1
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 70.2 73.5
Avg Pts Against 72.2 74.8
Massey -0.2 (#180) -8.0 (#311)
Bradley-Terry -0.59 (#234) -1.33 (#284)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.48 (#158) -2.14 (#290)
RPI 0.406 (#304) 0.422 (#288)
Shooting & Four Factors TNST APSU
FG% 45.2% 37.9%
3PT% 33.0% 30.3%
REB / G 32.8 31.7
OREB / G 11.2 11.0
AST / TO 0.95 0.63
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.2% 42.3%
TOV% 20.9% 18.9%
ORB% 32.7% 30.3%
FT Rate 26.0% 18.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.1% 53.9%
Opp TOV% 22.5% 22.6%
DRB% 65.9% 67.4%
Opp FT Rate 31.6% 27.0%

Game Analysis

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