Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -225 APSU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -13.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -9.3 (-5.3) | 134.3 (-0.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -10.0 (-6.0) | 137.8 (-3.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -10.0 (-6.0) | 137.4 (-3.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -9.7 (-5.7) | 136.3 (-2.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2022 | APSU 77 – 61 TNST |
| Feb 12, 2022 | APSU 54 – 52 TNST |
| Jan 22, 2022 | TNST 65 – 61 APSU |
| Jan 30, 2021 | APSU 71 – 56 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2020 | APSU 68 – 59 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#180) | -8.0 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#234) | -1.33 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#158) | -2.14 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#304) | 0.422 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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