He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Ohio Valley Conference · Gentry Center · December 31, 2020
Betting Lines
Spread APSU -6.5 Away covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money TNST +220 / APSU -260
Model Predictions
Spread Total TNST win
Actual APSU +9 127 Lost
Massey TNST -2.4 (-11.4) — —
Massey Totals — 144.3 (-17.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 34% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 31% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ TNST -0.2 (-9.2) 137.3 (-10.3) 41% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML TNST -1.7 (-10.7) 142.1 (-15.1) 56% ✗
Baseline ML TNST -1.0 (-10.0) 143.5 (-16.5) 50% ✗
Baseline Plus ML TNST -0.1 (-9.1) 141.6 (-14.6) 47% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 3, 2023 TNST 69 – 65 APSU
Dec 3, 2022 APSU 77 – 61 TNST
Feb 12, 2022 APSU 54 – 52 TNST
Jan 22, 2022 TNST 65 – 61 APSU
Jan 30, 2021 APSU 71 – 56 TNST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TNST APSU
Overall 4-19 14-13
Conference 3-17 10-10
Home 4-8 8-5
Away 0-10 4-6
Neutral 0-1 2-2
Last 5 0-4 2-3
Streak L3 L4
Avg Pts For 67.4 72.9
Avg Pts Against 74.3 71.4
Massey -7.8 (#281) -6.1 (#252)
Bradley-Terry -2.02 (#290) -0.69 (#217)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.95 (#292) -1.46 (#236)
RPI 0.488 (#172) 0.407 (#279)
Shooting & Four Factors TNST APSU
FG% 40.6% 42.3%
3PT% 21.7% 29.7%
REB / G 35.8 32.7
OREB / G 10.0 13.3
AST / TO 0.70 0.56
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.2% 47.1%
TOV% 21.1% 24.1%
ORB% 24.7% 37.4%
FT Rate 14.5% 25.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 57.3%
Opp TOV% 21.4% 23.1%
DRB% 71.0% 69.0%
Opp FT Rate 38.5% 20.7%

Game Analysis

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