Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | TNST +220 APSU -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +9 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -2.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -0.2 (-9.2) | 137.3 (-10.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -1.7 (-10.7) | 142.1 (-15.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -1.0 (-10.0) | 143.5 (-16.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.1 (-9.1) | 141.6 (-14.6) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2023 | TNST 69 – 65 APSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | APSU 77 – 61 TNST |
| Feb 12, 2022 | APSU 54 – 52 TNST |
| Jan 22, 2022 | TNST 65 – 61 APSU |
| Jan 30, 2021 | APSU 71 – 56 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-19 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-10 |
| Home | 4-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 0-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#281) | -6.1 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#290) | -0.69 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#292) | -1.46 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#172) | 0.407 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.