Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -1.1 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -0.9 (+13.1) | 132.3 (+7.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -0.8 (+13.2) | 132.4 (+7.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -0.2 (+13.8) | 133.3 (+6.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -0.8 (+13.2) | 134.1 (+5.9) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UVA 81 – 74 NCSU |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UVA 90 – 61 NCSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UVA 76 – 61 NCSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UVA 70 – 67 NCSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | NCSU 73 – 65 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 12-8 |
| Home | 7-10 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#119) | 5.6 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#163) | 1.02 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#143) | 1.35 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#182) | 0.543 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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