Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -18.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +10 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -20.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -15.8 (-5.8) | 151.1 (+10.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -14.8 (-4.8) | 152.3 (+9.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -14.9 (-4.9) | 151.6 (+10.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -15.6 (-5.6) | 152.9 (+9.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | ALA 90 – 64 MIZ |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MIZ 110 – 98 ALA |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ALA 93 – 75 MIZ |
| Mar 11, 2023 | ALA 72 – 61 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2023 | ALA 85 – 64 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#16) | -2.1 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#30) | 0.54 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#25) | 0.70 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.676 (#4) | 0.520 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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