Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -1400 MIZ +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +18 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -21.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -15.8 (+2.2) | 159.8 (+8.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -16.7 (+1.3) | 160.5 (+7.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -18.5 (-0.5) | 159.9 (+8.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -18.4 (-0.4) | 160.1 (+7.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | ALA 90 – 64 MIZ |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MIZ 110 – 98 ALA |
| Mar 11, 2023 | ALA 72 – 61 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2023 | ALA 85 – 64 MIZ |
| Jan 22, 2022 | ALA 86 – 76 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 0-18 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-11 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L19 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#5) | 3.1 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#30) | 0.54 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#26) | 0.95 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#16) | 0.517 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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