Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Under |
| Money | ALA -550 MIZ +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -11.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.3 (-32.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -7.4 (+3.6) | 158.6 (-25.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -8.6 (+2.4) | 157.6 (-24.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -7.6 (+3.4) | 159.2 (-26.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -7.5 (+3.5) | 158.7 (-25.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | ALA 90 – 64 MIZ |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MIZ 110 – 98 ALA |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ALA 93 – 75 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2023 | ALA 85 – 64 MIZ |
| Jan 22, 2022 | ALA 86 – 76 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 16-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 20.7 (#2) | 9.5 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#3) | 2.41 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.03 (#3) | 2.63 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.664 (#1) | 0.588 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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