Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -650 MIZ +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +26 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -12.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -11.0 (+15.0) | 163.2 (-9.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -10.9 (+15.1) | 161.1 (-7.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -11.6 (+14.4) | 161.4 (-7.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -13.2 (+12.8) | 163.3 (-9.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | MIZ 110 – 98 ALA |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ALA 93 – 75 MIZ |
| Mar 11, 2023 | ALA 72 – 61 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2023 | ALA 85 – 64 MIZ |
| Jan 22, 2022 | ALA 86 – 76 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 79.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#17) | 9.2 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#22) | 1.96 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.93 (#22) | 2.71 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#18) | 0.551 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 42.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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