Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 173.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -125 ALA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +12 | 208 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -1.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.7 (+36.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -0.2 (+12.2) | 175.7 (+32.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -3.0 (+9.0) | 174.4 (+33.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -2.5 (+9.5) | 174.8 (+33.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -0.7 (+11.3) | 169.6 (+38.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | ALA 90 – 64 MIZ |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ALA 93 – 75 MIZ |
| Mar 11, 2023 | ALA 72 – 61 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2023 | ALA 85 – 64 MIZ |
| Jan 22, 2022 | ALA 86 – 76 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 18-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 90.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#18) | 21.9 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#8) | 4.13 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.30 (#7) | 5.06 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#26) | 0.684 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 44.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.9% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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