Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +10 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -3.2 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -4.5 (-5.5) | 134.4 (-28.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -4.6 (-5.4) | 140.4 (-34.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -4.4 (-5.6) | 141.3 (-35.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -4.3 (-5.7) | 139.8 (-33.8) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MONT 98 – 72 NAU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | MONT 78 – 64 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MONT 74 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | MONT 83 – 80 NAU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MONT 81 – 76 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 5-10 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#320) | -2.9 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#304) | 0.25 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#299) | 0.40 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#287) | 0.504 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 18.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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