Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +20 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -9.8 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -11.0 (-9.0) | 126.6 (-0.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -9.0 (-11.0) | 129.2 (-3.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -9.5 (-10.5) | 130.2 (-4.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -10.6 (-9.4) | 129.0 (-3.0) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | CSU 91 – 74 AF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | CSU 81 – 52 AF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CSU 77 – 55 AF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CSU 79 – 58 AF |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CSU 82 – 73 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 25-6 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-11 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.0 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#227) | 10.4 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#168) | 3.24 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#184) | 3.87 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#183) | 0.638 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 27.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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