Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -0.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -0.6 (+8.6) | 145.9 (-1.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -0.0 (+8.0) | 146.9 (-2.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -0.2 (+7.8) | 147.4 (-3.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -0.1 (+8.1) | 148.8 (-4.8) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PENN 88 – 84 YALE |
| Feb 21, 2026 | YALE 74 – 70 PENN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | YALE 77 – 60 PENN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | YALE 72 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | YALE 90 – 61 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Home | 6-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#222) | 1.7 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#248) | 0.22 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#231) | 0.44 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#240) | 0.535 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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