Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -3.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -4.7 (+4.3) | 152.9 (-1.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -4.0 (+5.0) | 148.9 (+2.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -5.1 (+3.9) | 153.0 (-2.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -5.0 (+4.0) | 152.4 (-1.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AUB 75 – 74 UK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | AUB 94 – 78 UK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UK 70 – 59 AUB |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UK 86 – 54 AUB |
| Feb 13, 2021 | UK 82 – 80 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-0 | 18-0 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.6 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#7) | 19.2 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.15 (#1) | 2.75 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.12 (#1) | 3.68 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.681 (#2) | 0.601 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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