Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | UK +175 AUB -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +16 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -5.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -2.2 (-13.8) | 166.0 (+6.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -4.2 (-11.8) | 167.6 (+4.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -3.2 (-12.8) | 166.1 (+5.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -5.1 (-10.9) | 164.1 (+7.9) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AUB 75 – 74 UK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UK 70 – 59 AUB |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UK 86 – 54 AUB |
| Jan 22, 2022 | AUB 80 – 71 UK |
| Feb 13, 2021 | UK 82 – 80 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#12) | 27.1 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#9) | 5.18 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#13) | 6.23 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#11) | 0.707 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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