Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UK -225 AUB +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +32 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UK -2.7 (+29.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -3.4 (+28.6) | 143.3 (-3.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -3.1 (+28.9) | 141.7 (-1.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -3.5 (+28.5) | 143.4 (-3.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -3.2 (+28.8) | 144.4 (-4.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AUB 75 – 74 UK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | AUB 94 – 78 UK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UK 70 – 59 AUB |
| Jan 22, 2022 | AUB 80 – 71 UK |
| Feb 13, 2021 | UK 82 – 80 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#29) | 12.5 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#29) | 1.96 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#32) | 2.42 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#36) | 0.602 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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