Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -180 UK +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -1.0 (-0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -1.0 (+2.0) | 156.6 (-7.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -2.6 (-1.6) | 154.4 (-5.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -2.6 (-1.6) | 155.0 (-6.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -1.6 (-0.6) | 155.2 (-6.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | AUB 94 – 78 UK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UK 70 – 59 AUB |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UK 86 – 54 AUB |
| Jan 22, 2022 | AUB 80 – 71 UK |
| Feb 13, 2021 | UK 82 – 80 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#31) | 17.0 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#44) | 2.66 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#36) | 3.36 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#34) | 0.590 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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