Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UK -150 AUB +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +2 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | UK -1.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -1.2 (+0.8) | 148.3 (+13.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -2.4 (-0.4) | 148.1 (+13.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -2.0 (+0.0) | 149.9 (+12.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -1.2 (+0.8) | 148.8 (+13.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AUB 75 – 74 UK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | AUB 94 – 78 UK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UK 70 – 59 AUB |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UK 86 – 54 AUB |
| Jan 22, 2022 | AUB 80 – 71 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#69) | 9.2 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#125) | 1.29 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#84) | 1.91 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#136) | 0.544 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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