Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -450 UK +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -9.4 (-20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.4 (-40.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -9.3 (-20.3) | 161.7 (-32.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -9.9 (-20.9) | 168.8 (-39.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -8.5 (-19.5) | 166.3 (-37.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -9.6 (-20.6) | 168.1 (-39.1) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AUB 75 – 74 UK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | AUB 94 – 78 UK |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UK 86 – 54 AUB |
| Jan 22, 2022 | AUB 80 – 71 UK |
| Feb 13, 2021 | UK 82 – 80 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 89.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 19.9 (#5) | 13.8 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#9) | 2.00 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#7) | 2.53 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#9) | 0.577 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 40.7% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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