Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +16 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -10.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -9.9 (+6.1) | 132.9 (-8.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -8.8 (+7.2) | 131.6 (-7.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -9.1 (+6.9) | 131.9 (-7.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -10.0 (+6.0) | 134.0 (-10.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VCU 77 – 64 JOES |
| Jan 19, 2026 | VCU 79 – 72 JOES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VCU 78 – 69 JOES |
| Mar 16, 2024 | VCU 66 – 60 JOES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | VCU 73 – 69 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#73) | 1.1 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#70) | -0.02 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#79) | 0.13 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#52) | 0.495 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.1% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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