Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +9 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -8.9 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -5.5 (-3.5) | 148.3 (+24.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -6.6 (-2.4) | 150.5 (+22.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -7.1 (-1.9) | 150.1 (+22.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -8.0 (-1.0) | 150.7 (+22.3) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HOW 84 – 59 MORG |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MORG 78 – 77 HOW |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MORG 91 – 90 HOW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HOW 87 – 81 MORG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOW 100 – 95 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-15 | 16-13 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 9-5 |
| Home | 8-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -12.7 (#338) | -0.3 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#328) | -1.38 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#331) | -1.15 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#335) | 0.411 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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