Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +1 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -2.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -1.0 (-2.0) | 145.8 (-24.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -3.6 (-4.6) | 148.2 (-27.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -3.5 (-4.5) | 149.4 (-28.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -2.7 (-3.7) | 149.6 (-28.6) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MIA 83 – 73 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | FSU 65 – 63 MIA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FSU 74 – 66 MIA |
| Jan 9, 2025 | FSU 80 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FSU 83 – 75 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 10-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#75) | 8.1 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#41) | 1.79 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#45) | 2.03 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#35) | 0.591 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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