Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +20 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -13.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -11.6 (+8.4) | 155.8 (-17.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -11.9 (+8.1) | 158.8 (-20.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -11.9 (+8.1) | 158.8 (-20.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -13.0 (+7.0) | 157.4 (-19.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | DUKE 101 – 64 SYR |
| Feb 6, 2025 | DUKE 83 – 54 SYR |
| Jan 3, 2024 | DUKE 86 – 66 SYR |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DUKE 77 – 55 SYR |
| Mar 10, 2022 | DUKE 88 – 79 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#12) | 6.6 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#25) | 0.70 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#10) | 0.77 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#34) | 0.529 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.5% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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