Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -14.9 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -10.1 (-14.1) | 136.5 (+21.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -11.7 (-15.7) | 138.8 (+19.2) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -11.6 (-15.6) | 137.9 (+20.1) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -11.1 (-15.1) | 137.4 (+20.6) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | UNCW 82 – 73 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | TOW 65 – 61 UNCW |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TOW 66 – 56 UNCW |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 64 TOW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOW 67 – 64 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 11-5 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#82) | -4.7 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#90) | 0.20 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#88) | -0.36 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#96) | 0.500 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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