Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +38 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -10.4 (+27.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -7.4 (+30.6) | 143.1 (+6.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -8.0 (+30.0) | 146.2 (+3.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -8.2 (+29.8) | 146.0 (+4.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -8.3 (+29.7) | 145.7 (+4.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | EVAN 88 – 80 ILST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | ILST 73 – 47 EVAN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILST 62 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | EVAN 69 – 51 ILST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | EVAN 59 – 53 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 2-16 |
| Home | 11-6 | 4-9 |
| Away | 1-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 58.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#199) | -8.2 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#219) | -2.25 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#223) | -2.39 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#223) | 0.411 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 17.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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