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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–23 on winners spread MAE 9.4 66 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Purdue @ Indiana	-0.9	146.3	45%	65–68	✗
Akron @ Bowling Green	+1.6	150.6	60%	91–66	✗
Saint Louis @ Massachusetts	-6.0	152.0	26%	85–91	✗
SMU @ Memphis	+5.1	149.7	70%	70–62	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech	+0.9	141.0	58%	76–94	✓
Belmont @ Morehead State	-3.4	143.3	37%	74–83	✗
Austin Peay @ UT Martin	+2.8	143.7	61%	72–57	✗
Marshall @ Florida International	+3.0	146.5	66%	66–70	✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic	+1.5	147.4	57%	69–78	✓
Charlotte @ North Texas	+11.6	130.5	86%	51–65	✓
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis	-13.0	136.4	14%	73–45	✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern	+1.1	138.0	56%	76–72	✗
App State @ Georgia State	-0.6	136.8	46%	61–60	✓
Samford @ VMI	+3.8	155.5	67%	80–99	✓
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro	-6.0	129.8	25%	72–64	✓
Elon @ Drexel	+7.4	141.9	79%	49–77	✓
William & Mary @ Delaware	+13.8	149.2	89%	74–84	✓
UNC Wilmington @ James Madison	+4.6	144.8	71%	71–70	✗
Charleston @ Towson	+10.2	147.6	83%	67–74	✓
USC @ Colorado	-0.3	139.1	49%	61–58	✓
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston	-5.3	136.6	28%	46–71	✗
Grand Canyon @ Stephen F. Austin	-3.0	137.3	36%	46–71	✗
Texas State @ Little Rock	-7.7	141.9	25%	69–59	✓
Troy @ UL Monroe	-2.6	145.3	39%	73–65	✓
Monmouth @ Fairfield	-2.4	136.5	37%	61–58	✓
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State	+0.6	157.4	53%	63–85	✓
Old Dominion @ Rice	+5.1	145.8	71%	69–77	✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	-7.8	138.9	22%	89–84	✓
Northwestern State @ Nicholls	+11.9	158.5	88%	58–69	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Valley	+12.5	151.1	88%	56–66	✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State	+4.2	134.8	67%	88–84	✗
Seattle U @ Abilene Christian	+3.9	143.8	66%	72–62	✗
Northern Kentucky @ UIC	+4.7	139.3	70%	74–70	✗
Oakland @ Milwaukee	-10.4	141.3	16%	78–88	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay	-7.2	136.9	23%	63–70	✗
UT Arlington @ Arkansas State	+4.3	138.3	72%	70–75	✓
South Alabama @ Louisiana	+0.8	145.8	52%	77–70	✗
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts	+17.9	156.3	91%	76–80	✓
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas	-4.5	163.2	30%	92–77	✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City	+0.0	134.6	51%	77–80	✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word	+3.3	136.5	65%	68–65	✗
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+8.6	147.6	81%	56–60	✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans	+2.2	150.5	64%	72–78	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Murray State	+22.8	134.3	91%	51–91	✓
UConn @ Butler	-9.8	136.3	17%	75–56	✓
Boise State @ Utah State	+1.9	135.0	55%	62–59	✗
UNLV @ Air Force	-3.5	129.2	37%	62–69	✗
Tulsa @ Cincinnati	+8.6	136.7	81%	69–90	✓
UTSA @ UTEP	+12.7	136.4	88%	64–69	✓
Idaho State @ Weber State	+14.1	138.4	89%	63–95	✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho	-5.6	160.3	27%	87–70	✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington	+5.7	143.8	75%	62–75	✓
Lamar @ Utah Tech	+6.0	145.4	71%	55–71	✓
San Diego @ BYU	+12.5	139.8	88%	71–79	✓
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's	+6.0	139.3	76%	65–73	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine	+5.0	130.7	70%	65–63	✗
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego	+2.3	143.5	64%	87–69	✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge	-2.0	134.7	41%	64–47	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield	-1.3	130.0	45%	63–59	✓
Montana @ Portland State	-2.9	136.0	35%	66–64	✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga	+13.2	161.8	86%	62–78	✓
Arizona @ Stanford	-10.9	149.8	17%	85–57	✓
UCLA @ Utah	-6.9	146.1	25%	63–58	✓
Pepperdine @ Loyola Marymount	+9.0	143.8	83%	80–85	✓
Washington @ Oregon State	+1.3	144.0	55%	82–72	✗
Toledo @ Ohio	+3.5	144.0	68%	87–69	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.