Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -3.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -1.9 (+4.9) | 144.0 (-11.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -0.9 (+3.9) | 146.3 (-13.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -0.4 (+3.4) | 148.7 (-15.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.5 (+4.5) | 146.3 (-13.3) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PUR 93 – 64 IU |
| Jan 28, 2026 | IU 72 – 67 PUR |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IU 73 – 58 PUR |
| Feb 1, 2025 | PUR 81 – 76 IU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PUR 79 – 59 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#27) | 19.0 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#49) | 3.37 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#41) | 4.55 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#42) | 0.628 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 13.9% |
Game Analysis
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