Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -17.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +16 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -16.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -14.2 (+1.8) | 158.2 (-18.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -13.2 (+2.8) | 161.8 (-21.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -13.1 (+2.9) | 158.0 (-18.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -15.5 (+0.5) | 156.0 (-16.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 10-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-1 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 23.1 (#2) | 10.4 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#12) | 2.43 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.56 (#6) | 3.21 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#32) | 0.621 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.6% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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