Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +5 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -7.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+37.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -7.9 (+2.9) | 140.8 (+32.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -7.8 (+2.8) | 138.9 (+34.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -7.9 (+2.9) | 140.1 (+32.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -7.4 (+2.4) | 141.5 (+31.5) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MTST 76 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTST 77 – 68 NAU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NAU 69 – 64 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MTST 58 – 53 NAU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NAU 76 – 71 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 16-4 |
| Home | 5-10 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#324) | 1.0 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#295) | 0.40 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#295) | 0.45 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#285) | 0.516 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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