Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +25 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -5.4 (+30.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -2.5 (+27.5) | 132.6 (-15.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -5.3 (+30.3) | 136.6 (-19.6) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -4.3 (+29.3) | 137.4 (-20.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -3.8 (+28.8) | 135.2 (-18.2) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SHSU 69 – 61 NMSU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | NMSU 87 – 78 SHSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SHSU 76 – 69 NMSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NMSU 75 – 71 SHSU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | SHSU 79 – 58 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.5 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#222) | 6.4 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#240) | 2.25 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#248) | 2.36 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#235) | 0.594 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 13.5% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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