Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +15 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -3.8 (-18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -1.8 (-16.8) | 139.3 (-10.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -2.8 (-17.8) | 143.7 (-14.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -3.1 (-18.1) | 142.8 (-13.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -2.6 (-17.6) | 141.4 (-12.4) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2021 | UTM 65 – 62 APSU |
| Feb 11, 2021 | APSU 71 – 50 UTM |
| Feb 9, 2021 | UTM 76 – 75 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-8 | 6-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#289) | -7.4 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#286) | -1.93 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#284) | -2.55 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#296) | 0.407 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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