Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +3 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -7.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -5.2 (-8.2) | 138.1 (-11.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -4.0 (-7.0) | 143.0 (-16.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -3.9 (-6.9) | 142.5 (-15.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -3.5 (-6.5) | 141.5 (-14.5) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2022 | APSU 72 – 57 UTM |
| Feb 11, 2021 | APSU 71 – 50 UTM |
| Feb 9, 2021 | UTM 76 – 75 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-17 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 6-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#247) | -7.6 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#236) | -1.27 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#260) | -1.55 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#227) | 0.425 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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