Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | APSU -1600 UTM +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +21 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -15.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -11.2 (+9.8) | 138.6 (-17.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -11.2 (+9.8) | 144.6 (-23.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -12.2 (+8.8) | 143.3 (-22.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -11.7 (+9.3) | 141.6 (-20.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2022 | APSU 72 – 57 UTM |
| Dec 31, 2021 | UTM 65 – 62 APSU |
| Feb 9, 2021 | UTM 76 – 75 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 8-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#218) | -15.7 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#219) | -1.66 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#235) | -2.81 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#201) | 0.414 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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