Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UTM +750 APSU -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -11.3 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -7.8 (+8.8) | 135.8 (+15.2) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -9.1 (+10.1) | 142.8 (+8.2) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -9.3 (+10.3) | 143.6 (+7.4) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -8.9 (+9.9) | 140.1 (+10.9) | 20% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2022 | APSU 72 – 57 UTM |
| Dec 31, 2021 | UTM 65 – 62 APSU |
| Feb 11, 2021 | APSU 71 – 50 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-16 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -16.4 (#342) | -2.4 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#314) | -0.34 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.96 (#325) | -0.83 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#315) | 0.488 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.2% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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