Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UIW -4.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -4.5 (-7.5) | 136.2 (-3.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -3.3 (-6.3) | 136.5 (-3.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -3.1 (-6.1) | 137.8 (-4.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -3.8 (-6.8) | 136.3 (-3.3) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | HCU 81 – 75 UIW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UIW 73 – 56 HCU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UIW 74 – 64 HCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HCU 81 – 76 UIW |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HCU 86 – 83 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 6-8 |
| Home | 5-10 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -14.5 (#346) | -15.7 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.91 (#345) | -4.15 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.44 (#343) | -5.54 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#319) | 0.343 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 25.3% |
| REB / G | 28.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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