Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORE +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -5.7 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -2.8 (+11.8) | 141.0 (+16.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -3.4 (+12.4) | 143.3 (+13.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -2.8 (+11.8) | 142.7 (+14.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -2.1 (+11.1) | 142.2 (+14.8) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2022 | MORE 53 – 51 BEL |
| Feb 11, 2022 | BEL 48 – 47 MORE |
| Mar 7, 2021 | MORE 86 – 71 BEL |
| Feb 27, 2021 | MORE 89 – 82 BEL |
| Feb 13, 2021 | BEL 73 – 58 MORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORE | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.4 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#131) | 11.1 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#94) | 2.27 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#100) | 2.70 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#104) | 0.604 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORE | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.5% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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