Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +7 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -1.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -1.0 (-8.0) | 144.0 (+3.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -0.8 (-7.8) | 145.8 (+1.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UL -0.3 (-7.3) | 146.1 (+0.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -0.5 (-7.5) | 145.4 (+1.6) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UL 59 – 56 USA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USA 63 – 58 UL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | USA 65 – 42 UL |
| Feb 2, 2025 | USA 62 – 58 UL |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UL 80 – 60 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#161) | 2.6 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#163) | 0.59 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#171) | 0.65 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#148) | 0.540 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.