Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +1 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -0.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -0.1 (-0.9) | 134.3 (-13.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -0.6 (-0.4) | 136.8 (-15.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -1.0 (-0.0) | 137.6 (-16.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -0.6 (-0.4) | 135.6 (-14.6) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APP 52 – 50 GAST |
| Dec 20, 2025 | GAST 70 – 63 APP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GAST 70 – 65 APP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | APP 80 – 76 GAST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | APP 81 – 71 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#260) | -0.9 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#260) | 0.35 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#244) | 0.47 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#253) | 0.540 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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