Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -10.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -9.0 (-4.0) | 140.5 (+24.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -9.0 (-4.0) | 143.8 (+21.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -9.1 (-4.1) | 144.6 (+20.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -9.2 (-4.2) | 143.7 (+21.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PEPP 90 – 89 LMU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | LMU 93 – 82 PEPP |
| Feb 12, 2025 | LMU 69 – 60 PEPP |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PEPP 72 – 63 LMU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LMU 68 – 61 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 3-12 | 1-15 |
| Home | 6-7 | 7-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#168) | -7.2 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#122) | -1.28 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#121) | -1.57 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#111) | 0.437 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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