Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | KC -1.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -1.0 (+4.0) | 133.0 (+24.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -0.0 (+3.0) | 134.6 (+22.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -0.1 (+2.9) | 135.7 (+21.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -0.2 (+3.2) | 136.2 (+20.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NDSU 95 – 59 KC |
| Jan 9, 2026 | NDSU 97 – 73 KC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NDSU 78 – 72 KC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NDSU 71 – 64 KC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | NDSU 82 – 78 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#270) | -3.4 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#244) | 0.03 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#231) | -0.14 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#241) | 0.488 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 28.3 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.4% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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