Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +3 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -2.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -1.4 (-1.6) | 137.9 (-18.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -0.3 (-2.7) | 139.1 (-20.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -0.6 (-2.4) | 139.0 (-20.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -0.3 (-2.7) | 139.4 (-20.4) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2024 | COLO 92 – 89 USC |
| Jan 14, 2024 | COLO 68 – 58 USC |
| Feb 24, 2023 | USC 84 – 65 COLO |
| Jan 13, 2023 | USC 68 – 61 COLO |
| Mar 13, 2021 | COLO 72 – 70 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#96) | 12.0 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#63) | 2.55 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#66) | 2.99 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#64) | 0.602 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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