Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | USC +110 COLO -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +3 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | COLO -3.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -2.0 (-1.0) | 148.4 (+32.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -1.5 (-1.5) | 149.3 (+31.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -1.5 (-1.5) | 150.6 (+30.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -2.0 (-1.0) | 151.1 (+29.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2024 | COLO 68 – 58 USC |
| Feb 24, 2023 | USC 84 – 65 COLO |
| Jan 13, 2023 | USC 68 – 61 COLO |
| Jan 21, 2022 | USC 61 – 58 COLO |
| Mar 13, 2021 | COLO 72 – 70 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#101) | 12.2 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#148) | 1.51 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#133) | 2.06 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#159) | 0.571 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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