Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -167 USC +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +19 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | COLO -3.3 (-22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -2.9 (-21.9) | 143.7 (+5.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -2.0 (-21.0) | 142.5 (+6.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -2.8 (-21.8) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -2.5 (-21.5) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2024 | COLO 92 – 89 USC |
| Jan 14, 2024 | COLO 68 – 58 USC |
| Jan 13, 2023 | USC 68 – 61 COLO |
| Jan 21, 2022 | USC 61 – 58 COLO |
| Mar 13, 2021 | COLO 72 – 70 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#51) | 9.8 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#101) | 1.65 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#81) | 2.03 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#75) | 0.577 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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