Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +18 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | OHIO -2.3 (-20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -3.1 (-21.1) | 142.1 (+13.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -3.5 (-21.5) | 144.0 (+12.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -3.5 (-21.5) | 144.8 (+11.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -3.2 (-21.2) | 145.3 (+10.7) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 – 67 OHIO |
| Jan 14, 2026 | TOL 101 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TOL 90 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TOL 96 – 82 OHIO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | TOL 86 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#93) | 7.3 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#26) | 1.47 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#30) | 1.70 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#45) | 0.568 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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