Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -6.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -5.3 (-2.7) | 126.5 (+9.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -6.0 (-2.0) | 129.8 (+6.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -6.1 (-1.9) | 129.0 (+7.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -6.6 (-1.4) | 129.4 (+6.6) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 80 UTC |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCG 77 – 72 UTC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTC 75 – 63 UNCG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 75 UTC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTC 89 – 61 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#190) | 8.6 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#174) | 1.66 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#169) | 1.87 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#180) | 0.596 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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