Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +1 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -7.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -5.5 (-6.5) | 142.5 (-1.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -4.6 (-5.6) | 144.8 (-3.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -4.6 (-5.6) | 144.7 (-3.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -4.0 (-5.0) | 145.1 (-4.1) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2022 | UNCW 78 – 77 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-14 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#187) | -5.2 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#139) | -0.08 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#165) | -0.49 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#147) | 0.479 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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