Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +1 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -2.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -2.2 (-1.2) | 145.1 (+9.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -2.7 (-1.7) | 146.8 (+8.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.7 (-1.7) | 147.4 (+7.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.7 (-1.7) | 147.6 (+7.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2022 | UNCW 71 – 70 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 15-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#217) | -2.3 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#134) | 0.05 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#162) | -0.24 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#138) | 0.505 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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