Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -1.6 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -2.7 (-5.3) | 143.1 (-5.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -2.6 (-5.4) | 145.3 (-7.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -2.0 (-6.0) | 144.9 (-6.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -2.3 (-5.7) | 144.8 (-6.8) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TROY 80 – 65 ULM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | TROY 77 – 76 ULM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TROY 87 – 50 ULM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | TROY 77 – 58 ULM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TROY 84 – 78 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#268) | -0.6 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#166) | 0.55 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#170) | 0.94 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#134) | 0.500 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.