Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +19 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -12.3 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -11.7 (-7.3) | 133.8 (-2.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -9.8 (-9.2) | 136.3 (-5.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -11.1 (-7.9) | 136.3 (-5.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -11.1 (-7.9) | 136.2 (-5.2) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | CONN 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CONN 79 – 60 BTLR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | CONN 80 – 78 BTLR |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CONN 78 – 74 BTLR |
| Feb 7, 2024 | CONN 71 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#170) | 15.6 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#80) | 2.85 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#78) | 3.77 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#114) | 0.602 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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